5.15.2008

Outrageous prediction

I have six minutes to kill before a webinar, so I thought I'd post my Thursday thoughts on the presidential election. I am going out on a limb with a rather out-there prediction.

I'm reading David Kennedy'as "Freedom from Fear" book about the Great Depression (and WW2), and I am amazed at some of the parallels between the first 30 years of the 20th century and the last 30:

* Predominantly Republican rule, with a "laissez faire," no regulations, decentralized government approach

* Significant infighting in the Democratic party, particuluarly in the runup that led to Hoover's election (hence my upcoming prediction)

* Significant problems in the farming markets, sudden and dramatic shift in inventory and demand in manufacturing

* Abuse in the unregulated banking and stock markets

Perhaps this is a stretch, but FDR contracted polio in 1921 -- which effectively removed him from the mudslinging among the Democrats, so that he was able to emerge in the '30s as a new, promising candidate, when people were finally more open to change. (Shades of John Edwards...?)

Anyway, my prediction if history repeats itself: Americans are traditionally loathe to have government intervention, and the majority (I fear) are still loathe to embracing the change of a black man or white woman in charge. Clinton and Obama have divided the party, and neither has emerged as a uniter. Things still aren't bad enough for people to squeal. It's very close, what with people losing homes and the alarming price escalations of fuel and food. But, I'm betting on the rural, conservative, Libertarian mindset to balk at the thought of universal health care, and still be suspicious of change in the form of race or gender, without sufficient cause.

So, I predict John McCain will win. I predict it will end the GOP stranglehold, as conditions deteriorate and McCain delivers more of the same in terms of no taxes, no government oversight, no market regulation. And then I predict people will be ready to start really being able to consider embracing more "radical" ideas. (Radical for Americans, anyway!)

10 comments:

wyrdbyrd said...

Aiyee, I hope you are wrong about McCain. I so so hope you are wrong. But you make a very good case. Also, many independents might be swayed by him as he doesn't seem as outrageously conservative as Bush and Cheney, et al.

My optimism sometimes outweighs reality. I was absolutely convinced that GWB would not get realected because he'd already shown what he was.

LK said...

I hope not, too, but in a way, if things really go south, which they probably will, whomever is in office will be blamed. Then we might get an even more facist candidate in 2012!

The other observation I have is that McCain is very old, and that might persaude some people to take a chance on Obama. Enough to offset the others...don't know.

Terri said...

I hope you're wrong too -- the planet won't survive another greedy Republican administration. I do hate to see all the Demo infighting, they are just shooting themselves in the foot.

I will be glad when it's over, I am SO SICK of hearing it every time I turn around. And I don't even listen to mainstream media!!

Tara said...

I could totally see this happening. I have said similar. I hope not, but after the last re-election, anything is possible. Though it's hard not to get my hopes up.

Dorothy W. said...

I'm horrible at predictions, so I won't even venture an opinion on yours, except that I hope you're wrong ... but your logic does make sense ... sigh.

smithereens said...

I'm not an American, but I too hope that your prediction will be wrong. What the world needs is not a US government with an old man who would be fine with a 100-years war in Irak (he's not the one to be there indeed) and admits that he doesn't really understand economics.

Margosita said...

I think I agree with you, for the most part. I think I stop short of actually predicting McCain as the winner, though. I think those are reasons that it will be a very close election, but if people keep losing their homes, gas prices stay ridiculous over the summer and if voter's that either typically stay home or have trouble at the polls (minorities especially) show up to vote, I think Obama (I'm assuming he's the nominee, obviously) could pull it off.

I hope, I hope, I hope!

Speaking of John McCain being ancient, here's a funny blog:

http://www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com/

I hope he has some sort of questionable health issue during the campaign. Nothing serious, but if he would just falter in the public eye or have a mini-collapse and cancel a few rallies, I think people would start talking more about if he could actually do the job.

bluepete said...

As a complete outsider my prediction could be hopelessly ill-informed. But I have a sense that the close race between Obama and Clinton won't hurt the Democrats after all. People want change from the Bush administration and I think Obama's youthful optimism could just take it. But any of the three would be a welcome change from GWB. What are the chances of a joint ticket?

Terri said...

bluepete - you mean a Republican/Democrat ticket??? Ha ha ha, when donkeys (and elephants!) fly!

brandon said...

I hope McCain doesn't win. He's too old be president. Check this out (http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/12/05425/2994/579/514017).